Fantasy Fastlane: A Texas-Sized Wild Card Shake-Up
The Texas Motor Speedway is a place of pure chaos, and picking the ultimate fantasy lineup here is akin to playing your hand at the roulette table. With 14 races at the reconfigured 1.5-mile track since 2023, all three 400-mile races have had at least 11 cautions, and the last two events had seven cautions apiece in the final stage. In the Next Gen era, Texas has averaged 14 cautions per race, more than any other active venue. This means that this weekend's picks should be made with caution, as we approach the midway point of the regular season with limited usage.
One strategy to consider is the 36 for 36 pick, a season-long points battle introduced in 2024 where strategy is key. With 36 chartered cars and 36 races on the 2026 schedule, players can choose each car once for the duration of the season. Now, let's dive into some key picks and analysis.
MUST START
William Byron, No. 24 Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet
In my opinion, Byron is a wise choice this weekend. He has a recent Texas victory under his belt and six top-10 finishes in 11 attempts in the Lone Star State. His average finish of 11.4 ranks as his best among active 1.5-mile venues, making him a reliable pick.
Kyle Larson, No. 5 Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet
Larson is a dangerous pick, but he has spent more laps inside the top five in the Next Gen era at Texas than any other driver. However, his finishes have been sporadic, placing 21st or worse in two of the last three events. So, while he's a strong contender, there's a risk involved.
Chase Briscoe, No. 19 Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota
Toyota has dominated the first two 1.5-mile races in 2026, and Briscoe has a trio of top 10s in five Texas starts with an average finish of 12.6. This makes him a strong candidate, especially considering the team's upside.
DRIVERS TO AVOID
Chris Buescher, No. 17 RFK Racing Ford
Buescher, a Texan, has struggled at his native soil, with no top 10s in 16 attempts. While RFK has impressed at intermediates, Buescher's performance at Texas has been underwhelming.
Alex Bowman, No. 48 Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet
Bowman's recent performance at Talladega Superspeedway was his best of the season, but Texas is arguably his worst circuit on the schedule. He has a pair of top 10s in 16 Texas trips, but his average finish of 25.4 is his worst among active 1.5-mile tracks.
SLEEPERS OF THE WEEK
Erik Jones, No. 43 Legacy Motor Club Toyota
Jones has been consistently near the top 10 at Texas, with four top fives and eight top 10s in 14 starts. His average finish of 11.8 is his best among active tracks, making him a solid sleeper pick.
Daniel Suárez, No. 7 Spire Motorsports Chevrolet
Suárez has been consistently performing well at Texas, with five straight finishes of 12th or better, four of which landed inside the top 10. This makes him a strong sleeper pick for the weekend.
FEATURED MATCHUPS
Carson Hocevar vs. Ty Gibbs
I predict Hocevar to win this matchup. Despite the track's history favoring Toyota, Gibbs has struggled at 1.5-mile tracks historically. Hocevar's recent victory and the team's strong spot at Texas make him a better pick.
Joey Logano vs. Chase Elliott
Elliott is the pick here. While he won the race in 2024, his recent Texas record is underwhelming with only two top 10s in the last nine races. Logano's raw pace at 1.5-mile venues is a concern.
Brad Keselowski vs. Chase Briscoe
Briscoe is my choice. Keselowski has posted six top 10s in the last seven Texas races and holds the most laps led among active drivers without a win here. Briscoe's consistency and team's upside make him a favorite.
Ross Chastain vs. Daniel Suárez
Suárez is the better pick. Chastain thrives in chaos, but Trackhouse has been a mystery this season, lacking speed at Kansas. Suárez, on the other hand, feels rejuvenated with Spire, and Texas is one of his steadiest tracks.
MY LINEUP
Starting five: William Byron, Kyle Larson, Chase Briscoe, Brad Keselowski, Carson Hocevar. Garage pick: Chase Elliott.
36 FOR 36
Pick: Erik Jones, No. 43 Legacy Motor Club Toyota. With another late-race incident affecting his Talladega finish, I predict Jones to rebound at his best track on the schedule. He has consistently performed well at Texas, with three finishes of 12th or better in five starts.
MUST WATCH
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